The Nord Stream Conspiracy Key Takeaways

The Nord Stream attack occurred on September 26, 2022, while the pipelines were shut down but still pressurized with gas.

One of the four pipes—part of Nord Stream 2—miraculously survived the attack.

The lack of official information created a breeding ground for conspiracy theories, quickly amplified online.

Two primary theories emerged: one blaming the United States (citing Biden’s earlier threat to “end” Nord Stream 2), the other pointing to Russia or other actors.

Dieter Romann’s long tenure, legal expertise, and network across European law enforcement made him uniquely positioned to lead the investigation.

The initial flotilla blended police and naval assets, with GSG 9 divers and advanced sonar, despite jurisdiction resting with Denmark and Sweden.

A Russian kilo-class submarine was logged near the blast sites, but investigators favored the theory of a small team of divers deployed from a civilian vessel.

The German federal prosecutor’s charge of “sabotage intended to harm the constitutional order” insulated the investigation from political interference and underscored the severity of the attack.

Germany had no contingency plan for a Russian gas cutoff because successive governments treated cheap Russian gas as a permanent axiom of European security.

Nord Stream was a Western European project, not just a Russo-German one; Dutch and French state-owned companies were co-owners, and the German government guaranteed the loan.

After the 2014 Crimea invasion, Merkel actively insulated energy trade from sanctions, allowing Gazprom and Rosneft to acquire critical German infrastructure.

The Biden administration’s “park Russia” strategy deliberately used Nord Stream 2 as a bargaining chip to focus on China—a miscalculation that emboldened Putin.

The policy of Wandel durch Handel failed because it assumed Russia would liberalize like postwar France; Russia’s imperial dynamics were fundamentally different and were ignored.

The SBU is a Soviet-derived agency with vast powers and a deep corruption problem, but also capable of historically audacious operations like the drone strike on Russian strategic bombers.

The Colonel and The General represent two paths within Ukrainian intelligence—one ascetic and relentless, the other flamboyant and geopolitically shrewd—but both are united by a deep animosity toward Russia and a willingness to cross any red line.

Human intelligence, not technical wizardry, remains the core of Ukrainian espionage, especially in recruiting Russians for cash over years.

The biggest threats to these masterminds often come not from Moscow but from their own government’s bureaucracy, paranoia, and internal power struggles.

Distrust in leadership drove bold action: Military and intelligence leaders excluded President Zelensky from the Nord Stream plan, believing his office couldn't be trusted with sensitive operations after he dismissed invasion warnings.

Improvisation defined early war efforts: From malfunctioning NLaws in the rain to using hobby divers for deep-sea sabotage, The Startup relied on desperate creativity and private funding.

Public-private partnerships were essential: The most effective Ukrainian military units operated with private backers, blurring lines between state and unofficial resources.

Operation Diameter emerged from a single sketch The Colonel's simple drawing of a pipe's cross section became the blueprint for attacking two major Russian gas pipelines.

Unlikely heroes stepped up: The Priest—a politician, diver, and priest—and The Grandpa—a grieving retired scientist—each contributed irreplaceable skills to the mission.

The crew were civilian diving enthusiasts, not career soldiers—their bond came from years of shared adventures in extreme underwater environments.

Freya’s inclusion against protocol (she couldn’t use a rebreather) was a decisive break from standard planning; her role proved essential to the Nord Stream mission.

The selection process involved psychological pressure tests including staged arrests, designed to weed out those who would break under real duress.

The Baltic’s unusually low salinity and many wrecks provided a perfect cover for the Northern Radius; the Southern Radius faced greater logistical hurdles and settled on Romania.

Operation Diameter leaked in spring 2022 through one of The Startup’s allied contacts—likely Swedish or Polish.

CIA Director Burns and the White House were briefed; The General was forced to text the Station Chief a verbal cancellation, but the operation was only temporarily frozen.

The breach radicalized the group, leading them to plan a strike on Nord Stream from inside Germany, despite Berlin having been warned.

Parallel plots included sabotage of the Crimean Bridge and a high-stakes pilot defection operation using encrypted apps and public data.

Investigative journalist Christo Grozev uncovered FSB infiltration of the defector plot via geolocation and possible honey traps.

Germany’s political shift—from helmet donor to second-largest backer—made the logistics of the northern radius feasible, yet the mission required absolute separation from any Ukrainian identity.

The "porn legend" reveals how cultural stereotypes were weaponized as operational cover, blending absurdity with tactical necessity.

The divers worked at the edge of human endurance in deteriorating conditions, with a single lost bomb and a bloodied deck illustrating how close they came to failure.

The timing miscalculation on Nord Stream 2 was a critical oversight that could have neutralized the attack—underscoring how small errors in planning nearly undid the operation.

The crew’s extraction and celebratory planning show a disciplined but human side to the mission: even saboteurs want to debrief over champagne.

The explosions themselves were delayed and violent, leaving permanent scars on the seabed and confirming the scale of the undertaking.

The immediate fallout was a mix of exhilaration, fear, and political maneuvering, with all major players scrambling to manage the story.

Russia quickly accused Ukraine of also targeting TurkStream, attempting to frame the attack as part of a broader pattern.

German and Dutch intelligence independently confirmed Ukrainian involvement, but public discourse remained dominated by the Hersh report and US-blaming theories.

German investigators quietly advanced the case, collecting DNA and photographic evidence, while politicians blocked transparency on intelligence sharing.

The incident strained US-Ukraine relations and highlighted the dangerous gap between operational secrecy and public accountability.

Allied Intelligence Paradox: The most surveilled sea in the world produced no useful intelligence for German investigators, suggesting deliberate withholding of information.

Polish Complicity: Polish authorities actively protected suspects, refused to share evidence, and facilitated The Iceman's escape, viewing the saboteurs as heroes.

Technical Persistence: German investigators methodically ruled out false theories before confirming the Andromeda crew could execute the mission using simple shot-line methods.

Fortune Favors the Prepared: An accidental leak of photographs by a Polish clerk ultimately provided the breakthrough that systematic work could not.

Zelensky-Zaluzhny tensions ran deep: the president’s pre-invasion inaction angered the military, but Zaluzhny still deferred to him on foreign sabotage to cover his own position.

The drinking anecdote was the only part of the reporting the principals disputed—they insisted the plan was already solid before the bottles were emptied.

The divers who risked their lives became trapped in Ukraine after arrest warrants were issued, while Freya embraced the clandestine life and upgraded her gear.

Scholz faced a political nightmare: a solid investigation pointing to Ukraine would undermine support for Kyiv, and Putin exploited nuclear threats to keep the chancellor cautious about breaking with the pipelines for good.

The state's calculus on missing soldiers: Ukraine and Russia both keep missing troops classified as alive to preserve morale and avoid compensation costs, leaving families without closure.

The investigator's mirror: The German Chief Investigator and The Colonel share quiet, methodical approaches, but the political systems they serve differ radically in how they treat their operatives.

The General's philosophy: Charm is the spymaster's primary weapon, rooted in a craving to be liked. The Startup's survival after confronting the president demonstrates a fundamental difference from Russia, where such defiance would be lethal.

Accountability without malice: The General's refusal to blame The Iceman reveals a code of responsibility—handlers manage their assets, they don't discard them, and failure belongs to the handlers.

A German speed camera photo of The Iceman’s car triggered a chain reaction that led to the arrest of both Andromeda crew members.

The Captain’s routine vacation booking habits allowed investigators to track his movements across Europe in real time.

Polish unity across political divides threatened the extradition process, with a judge using international law to argue that sabotaging Russian pipelines was a legitimate act of self-defense.

The Startup built a high-stakes legal defense team across three countries, banking on combatant immunity if the Ukrainian government officially acknowledged the operation.

The handover in Milan was a carefully orchestrated, high-security operation, with The Chief Investigator intentionally facing his suspect maskless.

Russia views Nord Stream’s reactivation as a core peace demand, not a bargaining chip.

The US initially signaled receptivity, revealing a transactional approach to energy politics.

Germany’s policy reversal remains fragile; sanctions can be lifted, and the pipelines could be brought back online at any time.

The longer the delay, the greater the expense for Russia, but the threat of restart lingers as a leverage tool.

The author’s unique position as a reporter who saw both sides’ strategies created a profound moral burden, not just a storytelling advantage.

Neither the Ukrainian nor the German approach was purely praiseworthy or condemnable; the story resists simple moral judgments.

The German investigation proceeded alone, abandoned by allies who either refused to help or actively worked against it—reflecting the geopolitical isolation of the probe.

The entire Nord Stream attack was carried out by seven people on a single yacht, with a budget of $250,000 and no backup plan—demonstrating how small, audacious operations can have outsized consequences.

The operation’s success hinged on a mix of meticulous planning, raw courage, and chaotic human factors like drinking and rebellion—not the clean, professional image of a state-sponsored sabotage.