Nuclear War — Interactive Mindmaps

Key concepts: Part I: The Buildup (Or, How We Got Here)

Part I: The Buildup (Or, How We Got Here)

The 1960 Nuclear War Plan

• December 1960 briefing at Offutt Air Force Base revealed plan to kill 600 million
• Plastic sheets on 150-foot wall showed waves of strikes, mostly on Moscow
• Moscow alone assigned 40 megatons, 4,000 times Hiroshima
• John Rubel called it 'mass extermination' and stayed silent for 48 years

Hiroshima and the Nuclear Buildup

• Little Boy killed over 80,000; height chosen by von Neumann to maximize deaths
• Setsuko Thurlow survived 1.1 miles from ground zero; testimony suppressed for decades
• Stockpile grew from 170 bombs in 1949 to 18,638 by 1960, peaking at 31,255 in 1967
• Thermonuclear 'Super' designed by Garwin and Teller; Ivy Mike yielded 10.4 megatons

The SIOP and Its Projected Toll

• Single Integrated Operational Plan merged separate service nuclear plans into one
• Joint Strategic Target Planning Staff of 1,300 folded target packages into one deck
• First strike on Moscow projected 275 million dead in first hour
• 325 million more from fallout over six months, many in non-belligerent countries

The Dissent and Silence

• Joint Chiefs and service secretaries offered congratulations; no one objected
• Marine Commandant David Shoup argued killing 300 million Chinese was not American
• Room fell silent; no one seconded him
• Rubel likened the meeting to the Wannsee Conference of 1942

The Plan Today

• SIOP never enacted, but successor OPLAN 8010-12 targets Russia, China, North Korea, Iran
• U.S. keeps 1,770 deployed weapons and over 5,000 total; Russia holds 1,674 deployed
• Reagan and Gorbachev warned in 1985 nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought
• Biden warned in 2022 that nuclear Armageddon danger reached frightening peak

Key concepts: Part II: The First 24 Minutes

Part II: The First 24 Minutes

Detection and the Decision Window

• Infrared satellites detect ICBM launch in a fraction of a second
• Three clocks: RED IMPACT, BLUE IMPACT, SAFE ESCAPE
• President has only six minutes to decide
• Reagan said no one could meet that window with reason

The 26-Minute Flight Timeline

• Soviet ICBM reaches U.S. in 26 minutes 40 seconds
• Five-minute boost, twenty-minute midcourse, 100-second terminal
• From North Korea, flight time is about 33 minutes
• Infrared satellites lose the rocket after motor burnout

Launch on Warning and Hair-Trigger Alert

• Launch on Warning means preparing to launch as soon as warned
• Bush, Obama, and Biden all campaigned against it but kept it
• Hair-Trigger Alert keeps 400 ICBMs, 66 bombers, 14 subs ready
• Perry: 'Once we are warned, we prepare to launch'

Missile Defense Failures and Alternatives

• Ground-Based Midcourse Defense: 9 of 20 hit-to-kill tests failed
• Odds of stopping a Hwasong-17 roughly 55 percent
• Garwin and Postol proposed armed Reaper drones over Sea of Japan
• Washington dismissed the drone idea and joint Russia initiative

Nuclear Command and Control

• Permissive Action Link put arming authority in the Football
• Black Book lists strike options and casualty estimates
• Joint Chiefs chairman advises rather than orders
• Bombers are the only triad leg that can be recalled

The Devil's Scenario and Continuity

• KN-23 strikes Diablo Canyon, triggering core meltdown
• NRC warns small fire would displace 3 to 4 million
• FEMA's Continuity of Operations rebuilds essential functions
• FEMA chief works inside a fifteen-minute frame

North Korea's Threat and Launch Orders

• North Korea tested ICBM in 2017 that could reach anywhere
• Romeo-class diesel sub could snorkel to Alaska's shelf undetected
• Two missiles confirm a decapitating counterattack is the only response
• Option Charlie: 82 aimpoints, 50 Minuteman IIIs, 8 Trident SLBMs

Key concepts: Part III: The Next 24 Minutes

Part III: The Next 24 Minutes

Diablo Canyon Attack

• KN-23 missile from submarine hits near Diablo Canyon
• Twin reactors and 2,000 tons of spent fuel burn
• Ground-level blast creates far worse fallout than airburst

Russian Misperception

• Tundra satellites confuse cirrus clouds with missile plumes
• Ted Postol warns this error could trigger all-out Russian launch
• Russia had nothing to do with the attack but deterrence has failed

Universal Unlock Code

• President authorizes code allowing STRATCOM to launch all weapons
• If president cannot be found, STRATCOM commander decides directly
• Pentagon is 120 seconds from a 1-megaton detonation

The Hole and False Alarm

• Minuteman III ICBMs from Wyoming must overfly Russia to reach North Korea
• Tundra satellites misreport fifty Minuteman missiles as over 100
• Serpukhov-15 commander calls Moscow, unlike Petrov in 1983

Proud Prophet and Its Verdict

• Reagan ordered 1983 war game with nearly 60,000 nuclear weapons
• Every scenario ended with no de-escalation and no victory
• U.S., Russia, and Europe destroyed; half a billion died in opening exchange

U.S. Counterstrike

• USS Nebraska fires eight Trident II D5 missiles at Pyongyang
• Each carries four 455-kiloton warheads, thirty-two total
• U.S. fires 82 warheads at North Korea to restore deterrence

Succession Crisis

• Defense secretary cannot be sworn in while protocols remain disputed
• STRATCOM commander holds universal unlock code and arguably authority
• Vice-chairman, highest-ranking officer, cannot command

Key concepts: Part IV: The Next (And Final) 24 Minutes

Part IV: The Next (And Final) 24 Minutes

Six Minutes to Decide

• Tracking data reaches Cheyenne Mountain; emergency messages go to NORAD, NORTHCOM, STRATCOM
• Acting president joins from Site R; STRATCOM commander waits in Doomsday Plane
• Around 1,000 Russian warheads inbound; six minutes to choose counterattack
• Hayden: nuclear war built for speed and decisiveness, not debate

Three Submarines Surface

• Three Russian subs break through five feet of ice near Franz Josef Land
• Two Delta-IV Tula class and one stealthier Borei class, 16 missiles each
• 192 warheads and 19.2 megatons; missiles launch five seconds apart
• Targets include U.S. nuclear command, NATO command, and bomber bases

No Debate at Raven Rock

• Doctrine says launch now; secretary of defense argues otherwise
• STRATCOM commander holds universal unlock code; five minutes left
• Panetta: crisis books exist, but nobody prepares for nuclear war
• Deterrence and policies to stop nuclear war have failed

North Korea Is Struck

• Twenty bombs hit nuclear facilities including Yongbyon; meltdowns follow
• Sohae strike drags China and its 410 nuclear weapons into the war
• Eighty-two warheads kill millions of North Koreans; fifty ICBMs inbound
• Striking a reactor violates ICRC Rule 42, but nuclear war has no rules

EMP and Grid Collapse

• Super-EMP detonates 300 miles over Omaha; covers contiguous U.S.
• E1, E2, E3 phases defeat surge suppressors; SCADA systems fail
• All three U.S. grids damaged; big transformers fail one after another
• Cooper warned grid shutdown could kill up to 90 percent of Americans

Collateral Effects and Aftermath

• Trains collide, elevators crash, 53 nuclear plants lose backup power
• Fly-by-wire aircraft lose control; no water, sanitation, or 911
• Disease-carrying insects swarm within fifteen minutes; people flee on foot
• Nothing substantial was done to prevent it; now it is too late

History Lesson No. 9: Apes on a Treadmill

• Warnke described arms race as 'monkey see, monkey do' with no winner
• 2007 study put chimps and humans on treadmills to study bipedalism
• Chimps pressed stop or jumped off when finished
• If apes know how to leave the treadmill, why do we not?